Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency.

Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, and the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency will emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of the most important questions is an accurate prevention, preparedness and prediction for the next pandemic. The main goal of this study is twofold: first, the clarification of sources and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the examination of prediction models of on-going pandemics, showing pros and cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show the vital role of environmental factors in the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and many limitations of the epidemiologic models of prediction because of the complex interactions between the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment and society that have generated variants and sub-variants with rapid transmission. The insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated with public health in order to provide lessons learned of health policy that may reduce risks of emergence and diffusion of new pandemics having negative societal impact.

New trajectories of technologies for the removal of pollutants and emerging contaminants in the environment.

Modern society has increasingly a diffusion of pollutants and emerging contaminants (e.g., different types of chemicals and endocrine disruptors in pharmaceuticals, pesticides, household cleaning, and personal care products, etc.) that have detrimental effects on the environment (atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and anthroposphere) and also generate diseases and disorders on the people health. Environmental science requires efforts in the detection and elimination of manifold pollutants and emerging pollutants with appropriate product and process technologies. This study aims to analyze different paths of treatment technologies to investigate their evolution and predict new directions of promising technological trajectories to support the removal of contaminants directed to reach, whenever possible, sustainable development objectives. The work is mainly devoted to wastewater treatment technologies. A proposed model analyzes the evolution of patents (proxy of innovation and new technology) on publications (proxy of science and knowledge advances) to quantify the relative growth rate of new trajectories of technologies to remove pollutants and emerging contaminants. Results reveal that new directions of treatment technologies having an accelerated rate of growth are (in decreasing order): biochar and reverse osmosis in physical-based technologies, coagulation, and disinfection water treatments in chemical-based technologies and anaerobic processes in biological-based technologies. Other main technologies, such as carbon nanotubes and advanced oxidation processes, seem to be in the initial phase of development and need learning by using processes and further science and technology advances to be implemented as effective treatments and cost-effective methods. The results here show similar trends to global market revenue in water and wastewater treatment technologies. These findings bring us to the main information to extend the knowledge about new directions of technologies for the treatment and/or elimination of pollutants and microorganisms in order to support decisions of policymakers towards goals of sustainable development by reducing environmental degradation and people health disorders.

High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies.

Some countries in the presence of unforeseen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have experienced lower total deaths, though higher numbers of COVID-19 related infections. Results here suggest that one of the explanations is the critical role of ventilator technology in clinical health environment to cope with the initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Statistical evidence shows that a large number of ventilators or breathing devices in countries (26.76 units per 100,000 inhabitants) is associated with a fatality rate of 1.44% (December 2020), whereas a higher fatality rate given by 2.46% is in nations with lower numbers of ventilator devices (10.38 average units per 100,000 people). These findings suggest that a large number of medical ventilators in clinical setting has a high potential for more efficient healthcare and improves the effective preparedness of crisis management to cope with new respiratory pandemic diseases in society. Hence, a forward-thinking and technology-oriented strategy in healthcare sector, based on investments in high-tech ventilator devices and other new medical technologies, can help clinicians deliver effective care and reduce negative effects of present and future respiratory infectious diseases, in particular when new drugs and appropriate treatments are missing in clinical environment to face unknown respiratory viral agents .

Editorial on the Topic "New Research on Detection and Removal of Emerging Pollutants".

With the Topic "New Research on Detection and Removal of Emerging Pollutants" (https://www [...].

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts.

The goal of the study here is to analyze and assess whether strict containment policies to cope with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis are effective interventions to reduce high numbers of infections and deaths. A homogenous sample of 31 countries is categorized in two sets: countries with high or low strictness of public policy to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The findings here suggest that countries with a low intensity of strictness have average confirmed cases and fatality rates related to COVID-19 lower than countries with high strictness in containment policies (confirmed cases are 24.69% vs. 26.06% and fatality rates are 74.33% vs. 76.38%, respectively, in countries with low and high strictness of COVID-19 public policies of containment). What this study adds is that high levels of strict restriction policies may not be useful measures of control in containing the spread and negative impact of pandemics similar to COVID-19 and additionally a high strictness in containment policies generates substantial social and economic costs. These findings can be explained with manifold socioeconomic and environmental factors that support transmission dynamics and circulation of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, high levels of strictness in public policy (and also a high share of administering new vaccines) seem to have low effectiveness to stop pandemics similar to COVID-19 driven by mutant viral agents. These results here suggest that the design of effective health policies for prevention and preparedness of future pandemics should be underpinned in a good governance of countries and adoption of new technology, rather than strict and generalized health polices having ambiguous effects of containment in society.

Are mega-events super spreaders of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19? A look into Tokyo 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to improve preparedness of next international events.

Tokyo Summer Olympics and Paralympics have raised social issues regarding the potential rise in COVID-19 cases in Japan and risks associated with the safe organization of mega sporting events during the pandemic, such as the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. This study investigates the Tokyo Summer Olympics as a unique case study to clarify the drivers of infectivity and provide guidelines to host countries for the safe organization of subsequent international sporting events. The result here reveals that Tokyo and Japan did not experience a rise in confirmed cases of COVID-19 due to the hosting of the Summer Olympics. Still, transmission dynamics seems to be mainly driven by the high density of population (about 1.2%, p-value <0.001) like other larger cities in Japan (result confirmed with Mann-Whitney U test, significance at 0.05). Our study provided evidence that hosting mega sporting events during this COVID-19 pandemic is safe if strictly maintained the precautions with non-pharmaceutical (and pharmaceutical) measures of control of infections. The Tokyo Summer Olympics hosting will be exemplary for next international events due to the successful implementation of preventive measures during COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

Evolution of Sensor Research for Clarifying the Dynamics and Properties of Future Directions.

The principal goal of this study is to analyze the evolution of sensor research and technologies from 1990 to 2020 to clarify outlook and future directions. This paper applies network analysis to a large dataset of publications concerning sensor research covering a 30-year period. Results show that the evolution of sensors is based on growing scientific interactions within networks, between different research fields that generate co-evolutionary pathways directed to develop general-purpose and/or specialized technologies, such as wireless sensors, biosensors, fiber-optic, and optical sensors, having manifold applications in industries. These results show new directions of sensor research that can drive R&D investments toward promising technological trajectories of sensors, exhibiting a high potential of growth to support scientific, technological, industrial, and socioeconomic development.

A machine learning algorithm to analyse the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), with new variants, continues to be a constant pandemic threat that is generating socio-economic and health issues in manifold countries. The principal goal of this study is to develop a machine learning experiment to assess the effects of vaccination on the fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 192 countries are analysed to explain the phenomena under study. This new algorithm selected two targets: the number of deaths and the fatality rate. Results suggest that, based on the respective vaccination plan, the turnout in the participation in the vaccination campaign, and the doses administered, countries under study suddenly have a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID-19 precisely at the point where the cut effect is generated in the neural network. This result is significant for the international scientific community. It would demonstrate the effective impact of the vaccination campaign on the fatality rate of COVID-19, whatever the country considered. In fact, once the vaccination has started (for vaccines that require a booster, we refer to at least the first dose), the antibody response of people seems to prevent the probability of death related to COVID-19. In short, at a certain point, the fatality rate collapses with increasing doses administered. All these results here can help decisions of policymakers to prepare optimal strategies, based on effective vaccination plans, to lessen the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis in socioeconomic and health systems.

Improving preparedness for next pandemics: Max level of COVID-19 vaccinations without social impositions to design effective health policy and avoid flawed democracies.

In the presence of pandemic threats, such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, vaccination is one of the fundamental strategies to cope with negative effects of new viral agents in society. The rollout of vast vaccination campaigns also generates the main issue of hesitancy and resistance to vaccines in a share of people. Many studies have investigated how to reduce the social resistance to vaccinations, however the maximum level of vaccinable people against COVID-19 (and in general against pandemic diseases), without coercion in countries, is unknown. The goal of this study is to solve the problem here by developing an empirical analysis, based on global data, to estimate the max share of people vaccinable in relation to socioeconomic wellbeing of nations. Results, based on 150 countries, reveal that vaccinations increase with the income per capita, achieving the maximum share of about 70% of total population, without coercion. This information can provide new knowledge to establish the appropriate goal of vaccination campaigns and in general of health policies to cope with next pandemic impacts, without restrictions that create socioeconomic problems. Overall, then, nations have a natural level of max vaccinable people (70% of population), but strict policies and mandates to achieve 90% of vaccinated population can reduce the quality of democracy and generate socioeconomic issues higher than (pandemic) crisis.

Meta-analysis to explain unknown causes of the origins of SARS-COV-2.

New Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious illness that has generated a pandemic crisis worldwide. One of the fundamental questions in science and society is how SARS-CoV-2 has been originated to design best practices directed to prevent and/or to cope with future hazardous pathogens. The study confronts this question here developing a meta-analysis, which endeavors to explain, whenever possible, unknown sources of the SARS-CoV-2. Findings suggest that the natural spillover of novel viral agents that generate more than 6.00 M deaths worldwide in about two years (such as, SARS-CoV-2 from February 2020 to March 2022) has a remote probability of occurrence (using an analogy with the probability of natural disasters generating a lot of fatalities), whereas science advances on hazardous viral agents and consequential lab accident have a (higher) probability of occurrence (about 13-20% like in manifold lab accidents). The findings of this meta-analysis suggest the vital role of improving the technical guidelines of biosafety at all levels in laboratories during the development of scientific research of experimental virology on hazardous pathogens to minimize risks of pandemic threats in environment and human society.

Scientific laws of research funding to support citations and diffusion of knowledge in life science.

One of the main problems in scientometrics is to explore the factors that affect the growth of citations in publications to identify best practices of research policy to increase the diffusion of scientific research and knowledge in science and society. The principal purpose of this study is to analyze how research funding affects the citation-based performance of scientific output in vital research fields of life science, which is a critical province (area of knowledge) in science to improve the wellbeing of people. This study uses data from the Scopus database in 2015 (to assess the impact on citations in 2021, after more than 5 years) concerning different disciplines of life science, given by "agricultural and biological sciences", "biochemistry, genetics, and molecular biology", "Immunology and microbiology", "neuroscience" and "pharmacology, toxicology and pharmaceutics". Results demonstrate that although journals publish un-funded articles more than funded publications in all disciplines of life science, the fraction of total citations in funded papers is higher than the share in the total number of publications. In short, funded documents receive more citations than un-funded papers in all research fields of life science under study. Findings also support that citations of total (funded + un-funded), funded, and un-funded published papers have a power-law distribution in all five research fields of life science. Original results here reveal a general property in scientific development: funded research has a higher scaling potential than un-funded publications. Critical implications of research policy, systematized in a decision-making matrix, suggest that R&D investments in "Neuroscience" can generate a positive impact of scientific results in science and society-in terms of citations-higher than other research fields in medicine. Overall, then, results here can explain some characteristics driving scientific change and help policymakers and scholars to allocate resources towards research fields that facilitate the development and diffusion of scientific research and knowledge in life science for positive societal impact.

COVID-19 pandemic over 2020 (withlockdowns) and 2021 (with vaccinations): similar effects for seasonality and environmental factors.

How is the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020 with an health policy of full lockdowns and in 2021 with a vast campaign of vaccinations? The present study confronts this question here by developing a comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic between April-September 2020 (based upon strong control measures) and April-September 2021 (focused on health policy of vaccinations) in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to experience in 2020 high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths and in 2021 Italy has a high share of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (>89% of population aged over 12 years in January 2022). Results suggest that over the period under study, the arithmetic mean of confirmed cases, hospitalizations of people and admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in 2020 and 2021 is significantly equal (p-value<0.01), except fatality rate. Results suggest in December 2021 lower hospitalizations, admissions to ICUs, and fatality rate of COVID-19 than December 2020, though confirmed cases and mortality rates are in 2021 higher than 2020, and likely converging trends in the first quarter of 2022. These findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic is driven by seasonality and environmental factors that reduce the negative effects in summer period, regardless control measures and/or vaccination campaigns. These findings here can be of benefit to design health policy responses of crisis management considering the growth of COVID-19 pandemic in winter months having reduced temperatures and low solar radiations ( COVID-19 has a behaviour of influenza-like illness). Hence, findings here suggest that strategies of prevention and control of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19 should be set up in summer months and fully implemented during low-solar-irradiation periods (autumn and winter period).

Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination for COVID-19 is a basic point to control this pandemic crisis in society. The study here,-using data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries (N=192) from March to May 2021,- clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, the numbers of deaths at global level. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and number of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines administered) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave (in May, 2021) moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.

Preparedness of countries to face COVID-19 pandemic crisis: Strategic positioning and factors supporting effective strategies of prevention of pandemic threats.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to generate a constant pandemic threat with new mutations of the viral agent (SARS-CoV-2) that create socioeconomic issues. One of the fundamental problems is the evaluation of the preparedness of countries to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis to detect and support factors associated with the reduction of mortality and the growth of vaccinations in society. The study here confronts this problem by developing two basic indexes, which measure the performance of countries to face pandemic threats. In particular, the Index r (as resilience) detects the countries having the best performance in the reduction of the negative impact of mortality related to COVID-19 pandemic and the Index p (as preparedness and prevention) assesses best-performer countries to support COVID-19 vaccinations in order to constrain future pandemic threats and support the recovery of socioeconomic systems. Index of resilience is a composite measure based on three indicators associated with COVID-19, given by average mortality, hospital occupancy and Intensive Care Units occupancy per 100 000 people, producing an overall score; Index of preparedness/prevention is a composite measure of two indicators related to COVID-19 vaccinations (i.e., doses of vaccines administered and total vaccinates per 100 000 people), producing also an overall score of performance. The application of these indexes on a case study of European countries, having a homogenous socioeconomic area, shows the strategic positioning of countries to cope with a major pandemic threat. Findings reveal that all countries have some weaknesses and no country has a high preparedness to cope with a major epidemic or pandemic. Moreover, results suggest that best-performer countries to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis have a smaller size of population and/or better public governance, associated with high expenditures in health system. These indexes can help policymakers for designing effective strategies to improve preparedness and prevention of countries to face future pandemic threats.

Scientific Developments and New Technological Trajectories in Sensor Research.

Scientific developments and new technological trajectories in sensors play an important role in understanding technological and social change. The goal of this study is to develop a scientometric analysis (using scientific documents and patents) to explain the evolution of sensor research and new sensor technologies that are critical to science and society. Results suggest that new directions in sensor research are driving technological trajectories of wireless sensor networks, biosensors and wearable sensors. These findings can help scholars to clarify new paths of technological change in sensors and policymakers to allocate research funds towards research fields and sensor technologies that have a high potential of growth for generating a positive societal impact.

Evolution and structure of research fields driven by crises and environmental threats: the COVID-19 research.

Evolution of science and behavior of new research fields emerging under conditions of crisis are new topics hardly known in social studies of science and scientometrics. In particular, the ecosystem and dynamics of research fields during crisis are vital aspects for explaining and planning the scientific development, and allocating resources efficaciously toward positive societal impact. This study here endeavors to analyze the evolution and structure of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) research, a new research field emerged and driven by a global pandemic crisis. The dynamics and structure of this research field are compared to related fields concerning respiratory disorders that are not guided by pandemic crisis, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, to explain similarities and differences. Results suggest that a crisis-driven research field is characterized by an unparalleled velocity of scientific production equal to about 1.2% daily, based on notes and short papers mainly open access that support scientific advances and discoveries in research arena over a short period of time, such as the development of innovative drugs given by novel vaccines and new antiviral COVID-19 treatments. Findings are generalized in properties that clarify the evolution and structure of new research fields and their research behavior in a period of crisis for guiding decisions of policymakers to support scientific and technological progress in human society in the presence of environmental threats.

SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogenic microorganisms in the environment.

The title of the Virtual Special Issue (VSI) "SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogenic microorganisms in the environment", clearly indicates a main focus not only on the virus causing the current pandemic, but also on other pathogenic microorganisms and their spatial and temporal dynamics in environmental compartments. Overall, the VSI has received more than 100 submissions relating to most of the possible fields connected to the pandemic, many of them of high scientific value. A rigorous peer-reviewing process has been carried out, with a panel of experts making a great work to evaluate that important number of submissions. As a result, those manuscripts reaching the highest scientific standards were selected for publication. We think that the papers included constitute a set of high-quality contributions, which should help to improve the overall scientific perspective regarding this crucial issue. In this piece, the Editors comment some issues on the papers accepted for publication, and include additional reflections.

High health expenditures and low exposure of population to air pollution as critical factors that can reduce fatality rate in COVID-19 pandemic crisis: a global analysis.

One of the problems hardly clarified in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis is to identify factors associated with a lower mortality of COVID-19 between countries to design strategies to cope with future pandemics in society. The study here confronts this problem by developing a global analysis based on more than 160 countries. This paper proposes that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, healthcare spending and air pollution of nations are critical factors associated with fatality rate of COVID-19. The statistical evidence seems in general to support that countries with a low average COVID-19 fatality rate have high expenditures in health sector >7.5% of GDP, high health expenditures per capita >$2,300 and a lower exposure of population to days exceeding safe levels of particulate matter (PM2.5). Another relevant finding here is that these countries have lower case fatality rates (CFRs) of COVID-19, regardless a higher percentage of population aged more than 65 years. Overall, then, this study finds that an effective and proactive strategy to reduce the negative impact of future pandemics, driven by novel viral agents, has to be based on a planning of enhancement of healthcare sector and of environmental sustainability that can reduce fatality rate of infectious diseases in society.

The impact of first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in society: comparative analysis to support control measures to cope with negative effects of future infectious diseases.

The goal of this study is a comparative analysis of the first and second wave of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to assess the impact on health of people for designing effective policy responses to constrain negative effects of future pandemic waves of COVID-19 and similar infectious diseases in society. The research here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Statistical analyses, based on daily data from February 2020 to February 2021, suggest that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a high negative impact on health of people over February-May 2020 period; after that, negative effects declined from June 2020 onwards. Second wave of COVID-19 pandemic from August 2020 to February 2021 had a growing incidence of confirmed cases also associated with variants of coronavirus, whereas admissions to Intensive Care Units and total deaths had lower levels compared to first wave of COVID-19. Lessons learned of this comparative analysis between first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy can be generalized in similar geo-economic areas to support effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain the negative impact on health of people of recurring waves of COVID-19 pandemic and similar infectious diseases in future.

How self-determination of scholars outclasses shrinking public research lab budgets, supporting scientific production: a case study and R&D management implications.

The main purpose of this study is to analyze how reorganization of public research organizations and shrinking public research lab budgets affect the evolution of research activity and scientific productivity. This study focuses on a case study of National Research Council of Italy (CNR), one of largest European public research organizations, to identify evolution of research activities and dynamics of scientific production from 2000 to 2019. The statistical analysis suggests that, in line with the origin of the CNR, scientific research focuses mainly on research fields of natural sciences, such as chemical, life and physical sciences, with an increasing role of scientific research in energy, engineering and mathematics. The study also shows a high intensity of collaboration of the CNR within international research networks. A key finding of this study is to show, for the first time, that although uncertain reforms and reductions of public funds, scientific productivity is growing. This novel result can be explained with self-determination of scholars as a vital determinant supporting scientific production that outclasses shrinking public research lab budgets and organizational deficiencies. The management and research policy implications of this study can be generalized to support an efficient organizational and managerial behavior, and higher scientific productivity of public research institutes in contexts of reduced public funding and market turbulence.